North Atlantic heating up

The North Atlantic Ocean is heating up, as more sunlight starts reaching the Northern Hemisphere. The above image, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, shows sea surface temperatures up to April 11, 2024. The image shows that 2024 temperatures have been significantly higher than 2023 temperatures for the same date. The annual maximum temperature in 2023 was reached on August 31. Temperatures can be expected to rise dramatically over the next few months, in line with the change in seasons. 

2024 temperatures to exceed 2023 temperatures?

The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows global ocean temperature anomalies from 1901-2000. The green line (LOcally Estimated Scatterplot Smoothing) could be a warning of higher temperature anomalies to come. 

Much will depend on the strength of the current El Niño over the next few months. The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows monthly temperature anomalies versus 1901-2000 through March 2024, colored by El Niño/La Niña conditions. 

NOAA warns that there is a bit of a delay in the effects of any given ENSO phase. So, the first part of this year will still be influenced by El Niño, which is in part why NOAA predicts a 55% chance that 2024 will be hotter than 2023.

Further factors (other than El Niño) may continue to accelerate the temperature rise, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one. The danger is that, due to strong wind along the path of the Gulf Stream, huge amounts of ocean heat will abruptly get pushed into the Arctic Ocean, with the influx of ocean heat causing destabilization of hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, resulting in eruptions of huge amounts of methane, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one.

Arctic sea ice getting very thin

The image below indicates that Arctic sea ice volume has recently been the lowest on record for the time of year.

Given that Arctic sea ice currently is still relatively extensive, this low volume indicates that sea ice is indeed very thin, which must be caused by ocean heat melting sea ice from below, since little or no sunshine is yet reaching the Arctic at the moment and air temperatures are still far below freezing point, so where ocean heat may be melting sea ice away from below, a thin layer of ice will quickly be reestablished at the surface.

This situation looks set to dramatically change over the next few months, as air temperatures will rise and as more ocean heat will reach the Arctic Ocean. Moreover, as illustrated by the map below, much of the thicker sea ice is located off the east coast of Greenland. This sea ice and the purple-colored sea ice can be expected to melt away quickly with the upcoming rise in temperatures over the next few months.

The image below warns that sea ice in a large area from the Laptev Sea down to the North Pole may be very thin. 

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.

Links

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• NOAA - Ocean temperature anomalies
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/time-series/globe/ocean/1/0/2015-2024?filter=true&filterType=loess

• NOAA - Monthly Temperature Anomalies Versus El Niño
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202403/supplemental/page-4

• NOAA - ENSO update 
https://www.facebook.com/NOAAClimateGov/posts/821505663344434
also discussed at facebook at: https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10161353804294679

• Did the climate experience a Regime Change in 2023?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/04/did-the-climate-experience-a-regime-change-in-2023.html

• Atlantic ocean heat threatens to unleash methane eruptions
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/03/atlantic-ocean-heat-threatens-to-unleash-methane-eruptions.html

• University of Bremen - Arctic sea ice
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice thickness and volume
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Did the climate experience a Regime Change in 2023?

The astonishing recent rise in temperatures makes one wonder whether a Regime Change did take place in 2023. 

The February 2024 temperature was 1.76°C above 1885-1915, potentially 2.75°C above pre-industrial (bright yellow inset right). The image was created by Sam Carana for Arctic-news.blogspot.com with an April 2024 data.giss.nasa.gov screenshot. The red line (6 months Lowess smoothing) highlights the Regime Change that may have occurred in 2023.

Meanwhile, NASA has released details for the March 2024 temperature, which was slightly lower (1.69°C above 1885-1915) than the February 2024 temperature (1.76°C above 1885-1915). Yet, the recent acceleration of the temperature rise has hardly changed, as highlighted by the red line. The question is whether this red line will continue with this steep rise.

The image below, created with NASA Land+Ocean monthly mean global temperature anomalies versus a 1900-1923 custom base, further adjusted by 0.99°C to reflect ocean air temperatures, higher polar anomalies and a pre-industrial base.

[ from earlier post ]

The above image shows a magenta trend that points at the temperature crossing 3°C above pre-industrial later this year (2024).

What could have caused such a steep rise? Of course, short-term variables such as El Niño did have a strong impact. However, sea surface temperatures have risen hugely for more than a year, far exceeding the temperatures of 2016, which was a strong El Niño year. This indicates that there must be other factors involved in the recent rise.

The image below shows world daily sea surface temperatures (60°S-60°N) through April 8, 2024. 

For more than a year, sea surface temperatures have been much higher than in any previous year on record, as if temperatures suddenly shifted into another gear and the climate experienced a Regime Change in 2023.

[ from the Extinction page ]

The top image illustrates that the temperature rise since pre-industrial could be as large as 2.75°C, as also discussed at the pre-industrial page. The extinction page points out that such a rise corresponds with almost ⅕ more water vapor in the atmosphere.

This increase in water vapor in the atmosphere is a self-reinforcing feedback, since water vapor is a powerful greenhouse gas, accelerating the temperature rise (as illustrated by the image on the right).

There is no single feedback behind the recent steep rise, instead there are numerous non-linear, self-reinforcing feedbacks that can all contribute, interact and start to kick in with greater ferocity, amplifying and accelerating the rise.

Such feedbacks include water vapor, storms, ocean stratification, loss of sea ice, loss of reflectivity of clouds and freshwater accumulating at the surface of oceans, due to stronger ice melting, due to heavier runoff from land and rivers and due to changes in wind patterns and ocean currents and circulation. Furthermore, developments such as the reduction in sulfur emissions from shipping over the past few years further push up the temperature rise.

Altogether, the temperature rise may exceed 18°C from pre-industrial by as early as 2026, as discussed at the Extinction page.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.

Links

• NASA - datasets and images
https://data.giss.nasa.gov

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• Pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html

• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

• Jet Stream
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html

• Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantic
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html

• Arctic Ocean Feedbacks

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/01/arctic-ocean-feedbacks.html

• Arctic sea ice set for steep decline

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/03/arctic-sea-ice-set-for-steep-decline.html

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Oppenheimer’s legacy – Portents of a nuclear war on a burning planet

The MADNESS of NUCLEAR and CLIMATE HORROR

by Andrew Glikson

The 24-hour media news cycle clouds the minds of people, perpetrators and hapless victims alike, to the future dimension, whether that of future generations or of the natural world itself.

During the 20-21ˢᵗ centuries, as mean global temperature keeps rising toward 4°C, a failed brain neuron or a damaged computer chip can trigger a nuclear catastrophe, while the 24-hour media news cycle can blind humanity to the future. The conditions emerge where the world is largely taken over by the banality of evil, insane mass murders, fake news and artificial intelligence, lately camouflaged by glitzy Oscar-winning orgies attended by billionaires and celebrity actors, such as at the launch of the film Oppenheimer, where the 140 thousand incinerated victims and hibakusha survivors of the Hiroshima atomic bomb are completely ignored

The film, populated by nuclear scientists, decorated military officers and replete with romantic affairs, makes little reference to the looming road to a nuclear abyss herald by the clock of the atomic scientists. Thus “Oppenheimer does little to challenge the long history of glorifying the work of white men, and risks perpetuating the persistent, often reductive, portrayals of Japanese victims in Hiroshima and Nagasaki.”

The world arsenal of 12,500 nuclear warheads, enough to terminate many advanced species on Earth, is hardly mentioned in the film, dominated by the world of good vs evil proclaimed by priests of god’s chosen nations, while the doomsday machine on which civilization spends $trillions out of the mouth of starving children.

It is a statistical impossibility that this arsenal may not be triggered, at least in part, by accident or design, such as has nearly-happened. The bloodsheds in Ukraine herald the onset of a rules-free world where anything is allowable, ultimately toward global death in the name of freedom.

Perched in front of fluorescent screens, oblivious to the unthinkable, the collective is mesmerized by the obscene untruths of the global media, portraying tribal massacres alternating with funeral insurance advertisements, national hubris and vacuous amusement.

How long would it take, if ever, for people to learn that the last thing politicians would tell them is the entire truth, even if they are aware of it.

Sane voices such as of Noam Chomsky and John Pilger are no longer heard.

It is not clear to what extent it worries too many people that the oncoming climate catastrophe and mass extinction of species have become statistically inevitable, as the idea that near -200,000 years of evolution may be eliminated belongs to the unthinkable. The idea may hardly enter into the minds of most decision makers, politicians and strategists.

The 24-hour media news cycle renders peoples’ minds oblivious to the future, whether of their offspring or of the natural world itself.

The biggest lie, conscious or unconscious, used by authorities which are supposed to protect life, is when they use the term “Future” as they repeatedly do, the very future they are betraying by what they are doing and by what they currently are not.


A/Prof. Andrew Y Glikson
Earth and climate scientist

Andrew Glikson

Books:
The Asteroid Impact Connection of Planetary Evolution
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272
The Archaean: Geological and Geochemical Windows into the Early Earth
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073
The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earth
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369
The Event Horizon: Homo Prometheus and the Climate Catastrophe
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332
Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocene
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111
Evolution of the Atmosphere, Fire and the Anthropocene Climate Event Horizon
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318
From Stars to Brains: Milestones in the Planetary Evolution of Life and Intelligence
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027
Asteroids Impacts, Crustal Evolution and Related Mineral Systems with Special Reference to Australia
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442
The Fatal Species: From Warlike Primates to Planetary Mass Extinction
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679
The Trials of Gaia. Milestones in the evolution of Earth with reference to the Antropocene
https://www.amazon.com.au/Trials-Gaia-Milestones-Evolution-Anthropocene/dp/3031237080

Atlantic ocean heat threatens to unleash methane eruptions

The image below shows that the monthly Atlantic surface temperature anomaly in February 2024 was 1.176°C when compared to a 1951-1980 base.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The image below shows that the monthly Atlantic surface temperature anomaly in February 2024 was 1.435°C when compared to a 1901-2000 base. 

The difference illustrates the importance of selecting a base to calculate anomalies from. The anomaly indicates how much heat has accumulated in the Atlantic, and it is even larger for February 2024 when using a genuinely pre-industrial base, as discussed earlier.

The images also highlight the potential for the slowing down of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) to contribute to more heat accumulating at the surface of the Atlantic Ocean.

As temperatures rise, many feedbacks are kicking in with greater ferocity, including increased stratification of oceans, loss of sea ice, loss of reflectivity of clouds and increased freshwater due to stronger melting of sea ice and glacial ice, due to heavier runoff from land and rivers and due to changes in ocean circulation.

While this may look to cause less ocean heat to reach the Arctic Ocean at the moment, the result is that a huge amount of ocean heat is accumulating in the North Atlantic that threatens to abruptly move into the Arctic Ocean. The danger is that an influx of ocean heat can cause large amounts of methane to erupt from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean. 

The inset on the top image illustrates that, as people's emissions raise the temperature, this rise can strengthen wind, evaporation, ocean currents and rainfall locally, resulting in greater potential for a lid to form and spread at the surface of the North Atlantic. As temperatures rise and winds strengthen, more evaporation can occur in one place and more rain can then fall further down the path of the Gulf Stream, i.e. an ocean current that extends into the Arctic Ocean, as part of AMOC. This rain further contributes to the freshwater accumulation at the surface of the North Atlantic.

In the video below, Guy McPherson discusses a recent study by Marilena Oltmanns et al. on some of these issues.

This page further discusses formation of a cool freshwater lid at the surface of the North Atlantic and the contribution to this of Jet Stream changes. The image below shows that the Jet Stream reached speeds as high as 455 km/h or 283 mph north of Washington on February 18, 2024 03:00 UTC, with Instantaneous Wind Power Density as high as 387.5 kW/m².

From earlier post Blue Ocean Event 2024?

A huge amount of ocean heat is accumulating in the North Atlantic and threatens to abruptly move into the Arctic Ocean. The danger is that, due to strong wind along the path of the Gulf Stream, huge amounts of ocean heat will abruptly get pushed into the Arctic Ocean, with the influx of ocean heat causing destabilization of hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, resulting in eruptions of huge amounts of methane. 

Strong hurricanes can significantly add to the danger. More hurricanes are forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season than during 1950-2020, as illustrated by the image below. 

Many of the dangers have been discussed before, e.g. the danger that sea currents in the Arctic Ocean will change direction, in this 2017 post. 

Arctic sea ice thickness warning

The compilation image below shows Arctic sea ice on March 28, 2024. The satellite image (left) may indicate extensive sea ice, but clouds can obscure things. The other image (right) indicates that sea ice in a large area from the Laptev Sea down to the North Pole may be very thin.

The image below illustrates the decline of Arctic sea ice volume over the years.

The images above and below show that Arctic sea ice volume has recently been the lowest on record for the time of year.

Given that Arctic sea ice currently is still relatively extensive, this low volume indicates that sea ice is indeed very thin, which must be caused by ocean heat melting sea ice from below, since little or no sunshine is yet reaching the Arctic at the moment and air temperatures are still far below freezing point, so where ocean heat may be melting sea ice away from below, a thin layer of ice will quickly be reestablished at the surface. 

This situation looks set to dramatically change over the next few months, as air temperatures will rise and as more ocean heat will reach the Arctic Ocean. Moreover, as illustrated by the map below, much of the thicker sea ice is located off the east coast of Greenland. This sea ice and the purple-colored sea ice can be expected to melt away quickly with the upcoming rise in temperatures over the next few months.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.

Links

• Climate Reanalyzer

https://climatereanalyzer.org

• Pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html

• Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantic
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html

• European summer weather linked to North Atlantic freshwater anomalies in preceding years - by Marilena Oltmanns et al.
https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/109/2024/wcd-5-109-2024-discussion.html
discussed at facebook at: 
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10161330866254679

• Science Snippets: Arctic Sea Ice Affects European Summers, Marine Life, and All Life on Earth - by Guy McPherson
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X09vtWNDuDw

• nullschool 
https://earth.nullschool.net

• Jet Stream
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html

• Extended range forecast of Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity and landfall strike probability for 2024 - by Philip Klotzbach et al.
https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html

discussed on facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10161346323759679

• Arctic Ocean Feedbacks

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/01/arctic-ocean-feedbacks.html

• NASA Worldview satellite images
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov

• University of Bremen - Arctic sea ice
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thickness

https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html